Expectancy Calculator
Expectancy is the single most important metric for evaluating a trading strategy. It tells you the average dollar amount you expect to make (or lose) per trade over a large sample. A positive expectancy means your system is profitable long-term; negative expectancy means you will eventually go broke. Use this calculator to confirm your edge before scaling up.
Enter as positive number
Expectancy Per Trade
+$37.50
Profit Factor
1.83
Avg Win × Win Rate
$82.50
Avg Loss × Loss Rate
$45.00
How to use this calculator
- 1
Enter your win rate
Your percentage of winning trades. Use at least 50–100 historical trades for accuracy.
- 2
Enter your average win
The average dollar profit on your winning trades.
- 3
Enter your average loss
The average dollar loss on your losing trades (enter as a positive number).
- 4
Read your expectancy
A positive number means your edge is real. Multiply by trades per month to estimate monthly profit.
Formula
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)
Loss Rate = 1 − Win Rate
Profit Factor = (Win Rate × Avg Win) ÷ (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)Expectancy combines win rate and average win/loss into a single metric. It equals the probability-weighted average outcome per trade. A profit factor above 1.5 is generally considered good; above 2.0 is excellent. Note: expectancy is only meaningful with a statistically significant sample size (50+ trades).
Worked Example
Win rate: 55% (W = 0.55) Average win: $150 Average loss: $100 Expectancy = (0.55 × $150) − (0.45 × $100) = $82.50 − $45.00 = +$37.50 per trade If you take 50 trades per month: Expected monthly profit = 50 × $37.50 = $1,875 Profit Factor = $82.50 ÷ $45.00 = 1.83 (good)
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